Bitcoin ended positively in 50% of the last 24 months. Based on these data, economist Timothy Peterson estimated the probability of Bitcoin rising in 10 months at 88%.
According to his calculations, during the next rally, the leading cryptocurrency will increase by 82% from current levels — approximately to $122,000.
According to CoinGlass, in 2025, digital gold showed positive dynamics in January, April, May, June, July, and September.
Peterson uses this metric as an “unofficial indicator” to track Bitcoin cycles. It helps to identify trend change points.
“The indicator measures frequency, not the degree of price change. Therefore, the asset can remain at the same level for several months, and the indicator will still decrease,” explained the expert.
Local Picture
According to analyst DurdenBTC, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit is at the zero percentile.
“This is lower than in December 2018 at $3,359 (43% of supply in profit). Lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic at $4,959 (48%). Lower than after the FTX collapse at $15,778 (49%). [..] This is what happens when the entire cycle buys Bitcoin at the peak,” he added.
MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed to a “fascinating chart” — non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutional investors, have reduced their net short positions in Bitcoin to extremely low levels.
A fascinating chart.
Non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in #Bitcoin in the entire dataset.
The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the “net short position” is at historic… pic.twitter.com/hX3qAd8lw9
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 22, 2026
Now, this class of traders holds a significant share of long positions in futures on digital gold. The last few times this occurred, markets experienced substantial rallies, noted the analyst.
CEO of Alphractal Joao Wedson emphasized that the buy/sell pressure delta in Bitcoin remains negative.
Buy/Sell Pressure Delta in BTC remains negative. 🔴
We will only turn bullish when it approaches 0, as that will signal a potential reversal to the upside.
Until then, bears still maintain control over the price, and if this pressure continues, price is likely to decline… https://t.co/eM3kAQpR9K pic.twitter.com/QjpFlVIEfE
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) February 21, 2026
In his view, the market will turn bullish only when the ratio approaches 0, signaling a potential upward reversal. Until then, bears will continue to control the price.
Earlier, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that in 2026, the leading cryptocurrency will begin to rise, but the shocking events of early February did not mark the final bottom for the asset.
