Experts from Galaxy Research have concluded that the current market cycle for the leading cryptocurrency has not yet hit its bottom. According to their report, the asset’s price could fall to a range of $40,000-$46,000.
Analysts noted that the four-year price movement rhythm, tied to halvings, persists. However, the amplitude of fluctuations is decreasing: each new peak is less “euphoric,” and the declines are less severe.
The peak recorded in October 2025 at $124,824 was described by researchers as the calmest in history. They attribute this to the dominance of institutional capital and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have smoothed volatility compared to past retail rallies.
Where is the Bottom?
To determine the potential minimum, experts used the realized price (the average purchase cost of coins by all holders). Currently, this figure is around $53,000.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price typically fell below this level by 25-44%. At present, only four out of 13 key bottom indicators have signaled a minimum.
Galaxy’s scenarios are as follows:
- Base case: decline to $40,000-$46,000.
- Pessimistic: in the event of severe panic, the price could drop to $30,000-$37,000.
- Optimistic: support at the cost level around $51,000-$54,000.
Timing and Risks
Historically, the bottom forms 12-13 months after reaching an all-time high. This suggests that the window for forming a minimum will open in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Researchers warned that calculations are based on the cost of coin purchases. If panic selling begins, this figure will decrease, potentially pushing support levels even lower.
Earlier, in May, analysts predicted Bitcoin’s exit from the bear phase.
