This week, “Deconstruction” focuses on SpaceX’s historic IPO, new EU sanctions, a tax bill in Russia, strict checks in the prediction market, Anthropic’s closed AI model, a critical Zcash wallet update, and Strategy’s Bitcoin sale.
EU Sanctions and Russia’s Crypto Tax Bill
The European Commission introduced its 21st sanctions package, which for the first time includes direct restrictions on cryptocurrency platforms and a mechanism to block services from third countries. Transferring funds abroad will become as difficult as through a bank: users will have to prove the legality of transactions or switch to non-custodial wallets.
Meanwhile, Russia has passed the first reading of a bill on the taxation of crypto transactions. The document makes it feasible for businesses to use stablecoins, allowing companies to legally write off the costs of purchasing them as expenses.
The main change is the mandatory collection of documents when paying taxes. If an asset is purchased from a private individual without receipts or statements, the tax authorities will consider the entire sale amount as income and levy tax on the entire withdrawn volume. Users will need to carefully keep all transaction histories and receipts.
Two New AI Models from Anthropic
Anthropic released its flagship Fable 5 for long and complex tasks. During testing, the model was able to transfer a codebase of 50 million lines in one day, a task that would take a development team two months. The second model, the closed flagship Mythos 5, is available only to trusted partners. Both models are priced the same.
The main difference lies in their protective filters. Fable redirects sensitive requests, while Mythos bypasses these filters. This is why the closed model excels at detecting cybersecurity vulnerabilities and accelerates certain stages of drug development by about ten times.
SpaceX IPO and Crypto Market Sell-Off
Investor demand for SpaceX’s initial public offering exceeded $250 billion. Elon Musk’s wealth reached $982 billion, bringing him closer to becoming a trillionaire. Investors are selling digital assets to buy Musk’s shares. The liquidity outflow has caused a money shortage in the crypto market and is one of the main reasons for Bitcoin’s 37% drop from its January highs.
An indirect risk comes from SpaceX’s own reserves. The company holds over 18,000 BTC on its balance sheet. After the IPO, decisions about their fate will be made by the board of directors. If they decide to lock in profits and sell these assets to improve quarterly reports, it will create additional pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Insiders in Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have grown into a serious financial tool and are beginning to face criminal charges. A U.S. Army serviceman earned $410,000 by betting on the outcome of a secret operation he was involved in planning. In response, platforms are transferring classic stock market rules to the new environment.
The Kalshi platform has significantly tightened its rules. Each new market is assigned a risk rating. If the score is high, the user must undergo employer verification. The platform checks access to confidential information and, if necessary, simply does not allow trading.
Zcash Vulnerability and Ironwood Update
An independent auditor in the Zcash network’s shielded pool discovered a critical vulnerability that allowed the creation of an unlimited number of new coins. Hackers did not manage to exploit the bug, but the cryptocurrency lost more than 50% of its value following the news. Developers temporarily disabled the vulnerable part of the blockchain and fixed the error, after which the rate recovered by 41.5%.
To address the security issue, developers have scheduled the July Ironwood update. The old vulnerable pool will be completely isolated. Users need to update their software during this period, or any new transfers to old wallets will be automatically rejected by the network.
Bitcoin Decline and Strategy’s Debt Risks
Bitcoin has lost 28% over the month. Analysts cite different bottom levels—ranging from $60,000 to $35,000. Pressure on the market comes from capital flow into tech IPOs, U.S. Treasury crypto seizures, and actions by Strategy, which holds 845,000 BTC and has sold part of its reserves for the first time.
The real issue for Strategy lies in its obligations to retail investors. The company has preferred shares with dividends of 11.5% per annum. About six months of payments are pledged on the balance sheet. In a declining market, the company faces a choice: either reduce dividends or sell Bitcoin. The structure relies solely on the constant growth of the asset’s price.
This is a shortened version of the podcast. Watch the full episode:
Subscribe to the podcast:
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
YouTube
Deezer
Yandex Music
YouTube Music
