Bets on the World Cup winner left 66.7% of addresses on the prediction platform Polymarket in the red, according to on-chain analyst defioasis.eth.
世界杯已告一段落，再次恭喜西班牙，不知道哪位小伙伴成功押中
在统计的 Polymarket 预测世界杯冠军归属市场的超过 19.4 万个独立交易地址中
亏损方面：
— 接近 13 万个地址预测错误实现亏损，亏损占比约 66.7%
— 大多数参与者的亏损幅度并不大，11.4 万个地址亏损在 100 美元以内，平均亏损不到 10… pic.twitter.com/z3kKImxnlZ— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026
In total, the analyst examined more than 194,000 wallets — about 130,000 recorded losses. Profit and loss distribution was uneven:
- only five accounts showed results above $1 million;
- 114,000 addresses lost less than $100 each, averaging about $10;
- 43 addresses lost more than $100,000 each, totaling over $15 million;
- one-third of participants were profitable, but for most gains did not exceed $100 — the average was under $5;
- 54 addresses made more than $100,000 each, totaling over $22 million;
“Global events like the World Cup attract huge trading volumes and liquidity. But the lion’s share of profits ultimately goes to a few traders with a stronger information edge and risk management,” defioasis.eth said.
Final wiped out Argentina’s biggest bull
The final match of the 2026 World Cup took place in New Jersey (U.S.) on July 19. Spain defeated Argentina 1–0.
Before the game, traders on Polymarket priced Spain’s chances of victory at about 58% and Argentina’s at 42%. Pricing was in line with the platform’s main competitor, Kalshi, as well as traditional bookmakers.
The reigning champions’ defeat wiped out their backers’ positions. The largest of them — trader gud.hl — lost his entire $1.23 million principal. He accumulated Argentina-to-win contracts across 28 trades, paying more than $30,000 in fees.
西班牙全场压制阿根廷，最终加时赛 1-0 取胜夺得世界杯冠军
Polymarket 阿根廷最大多头 gud.hl 尽管一度浮盈超过 500 万美元
但最终其损失了全部的 123 万美元本金 https://t.co/BezRFPyIPW pic.twitter.com/eeVjeBxZ2N
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026
According to defioasis.eth, at one point the position’s unrealized profit exceeded $5 million, but the trader did not lock it in.
Draws battered favorites throughout the tournament
The most notable losses at the World Cup were tied to draws. A trader under the pseudonym coldsway lost $11.6 million in ten days: only four of his 15 positions paid off. The largest setback — $4.9 million — came on a wager that Morocco would not win the July 4 match.
This guy lost $11.6M betting on the #WorldCup in just 10 days!
He placed 15 bets, lost 11 of them, and had a win rate of only 26.7%.
His biggest single loss was nearly $5M.https://t.co/dAWZWdoPxp pic.twitter.com/AIX0PGWbLj
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 6, 2026
In June, the account FlickRaw lost about $4.2 million in less than a day. First, it put $2.7 million on the Netherlands to beat Japan — the match ended 2–2. The next day, the trader staked $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt — another draw.
8
⚽️ FlickRaw’s 24hFlickRaw lost $4.2M in under 24 hours.
$2.7M on Netherlands over Japan was erased by an 88th-minute equalizer.
Then $1.5M on Belgium over Egypt was erased the next day by another draw. pic.twitter.com/OkQboFcm5y
— Sherif (@SherifDefi) July 19, 2026
User betoor619 bet nearly $1 million on Spain to beat Cabo Verde at 92% odds — for a potential $85,000 profit. A scoreless draw wiped out the stake.
Who profited from the tournament
The largest gains came from contrarian positions against favorites. The wallet fishalive turned about $400,000 into nearly $9 million on Spain vs. Cabo Verde. It held “Spain not to win” contracts and a +2.5 spread on the African side.
🚨BREAKING: Someone named “fishalive” put $400k on Spain NOT to win vs Cabo Verde at 9% odds…
This trade just cashed out $4,702,769.23 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/Kvp6RsoQJO
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 15, 2026
According to Lookonchain, another trader made $9.24 million in a single day by calling all four outcomes. The largest position — $7.03 million — was on Iran not beating New Zealand. The match ended 2–2.
Polymarket records
The 2026 World Cup winner market took in $4.3 billion — the most for a single event in Polymarket’s history. The previous record was the 2024 U.S. presidential election at $3.6 billion.
In June, the platform’s trading volume reached $10.8 billion, also a record. Kalshi’s figure was $33 billion. Combined, last month prediction market volumes exceeded $50 billion.
So far in July, Polymarket processed $5.8 billion in trades, and Kalshi $25.3 billion.
In July, researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University identified signs of manipulation in the settlement of five-minute bitcoin contracts on Polymarket.
