Despite the August rally of the leading cryptocurrency, it is too early to declare the end of the bear market. Analysts at Fidelity suggested that a bottom might have formed in July, but if historical cycles persist, a new low could occur around November.
New Low Expected by Year-End
The previous bear market low was in November 2022, experts noted. If the four-year pattern continues, the next low might be around November this year.
However, Fidelity cautioned against using this model for precise predictions, as Bitcoin’s historical cycles have never lasted exactly four years.
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Digital Assets, attributed the observed cyclicality primarily to waves of digital asset adoption.
“The more important point is that cryptocurrency adoption has occurred in waves, which can sustain cycles,” he emphasized.
Arguments for a Reversal
One potentially positive signal identified by Fidelity is a change in volatility. Previous bear phases of the leading cryptocurrency often ended with a period of low price fluctuations, followed by a sharp increase in market activity and upward price movement.
From June to mid-August, the market was in a phase of relatively low volatility. According to Kuiper, sellers appeared exhausted during this period, and the prices of several digital assets were at the lower end of historical valuation ranges.
Then, in the third week of August, Bitcoin gained over 25%. During the same period, Ethereum rose by 34.1%, and Solana by 28%.
Fidelity views this dynamic as an argument for a potential reversal. However, analysts emphasized that this alone does not confirm the start of a new bull market.
Kuiper also noted the market’s resilience to negative events. In his assessment, certain news that might have intensified sell-offs in a weaker phase did not lead to significant price declines.
Fundamental Market Activity
According to data from Bitwise cited by Fidelity, in July, the transaction volume with stablecoins was approximately 2.3 times higher than Visa’s payment volume. The company also noted an acceleration in the growth of the RWA market in 2026.
Kuiper considers these indicators a sign that the practical use of blockchain infrastructure remained robust even during price declines.
Fidelity noted that the August rally partially closed the gap between price dynamics and fundamental market activity.
Potential Growth Drivers
Among the factors that could support the next cycle, analysts highlighted:
- the development of the regulatory environment in the US;
- further institutional adoption;
- changes in monetary policy;
- emergence of new use cases for digital assets;
They paid particular attention to the CLARITY Act, which aims to delineate the powers of US regulators regarding different categories of digital assets. The document has already passed the House of Representatives and is under Senate review.
Experts also mentioned the proposed SEC Regulation Crypto Assets framework. The initiative outlines conditions under which certain early-stage token offerings could be exempt from standard securities registration requirements.
The proposal is currently in the public comment phase.
Earlier, on the night of September 3-4, Bitcoin tested the $82,000 mark. Analysts cited record inflows into ETFs—focused on the leading cryptocurrency, attracting $730 million during the previous trading session—as one of the reasons for the local rally.
