The leading cryptocurrency has stalled around the $77,000 mark. The asset lacks spot demand as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on the key interest rate.
According to COINDREAM, the current market structure resembles the period from January to March, when derivatives primarily drove the price.
Bitcoin’s Rally Lacks Conviction Without Spot Support
“Rallies without sustained spot demand are less convincing. Spot demand remains weak, leaving the current advance without solid underlying support.” – By COINDREAM pic.twitter.com/Lwlq9sO6lu
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 14, 2026
“Rallies without sustained spot demand are less convincing. Spot demand remains weak, leaving the current advance without solid underlying support,” the company noted.
Experts believe that in the current conditions, risk management takes precedence over expectations of a prolonged increase in Bitcoin prices.
Analyst Alex Adler Jr. noted that in the past 24 hours, the derivatives pressure index has dropped further into negative territory—from -25.36 to -60.8. The indicator has been below zero since September 6.
Since the same date, the Coinbase Premium Index has been in negative territory. The metric indicates seller dominance but does not clarify whether short positions are increasing or long positions are closing.
“The price withstands pressure, but data does not yet indicate buyer dominance. A sustained move above zero in the derivatives index with a return to the positive zone of the 48-hour average Coinbase premium will signal improvement. The main risk is a renewed price decline if negative pressure persists,” Adler Jr. emphasized.
Market Prepares for Risks
Currently, market attention is focused on the procedural vote on the GENIUS Act (September 15) and the Federal Reserve’s meeting on the key interest rate (September 16). However, according to Santiment analysts, positioning data indicates that market participants have de-risked in advance—last week.
Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move.
📊 Coin-denominated open interest fell from 321,497 BTC on Sep 3 to 278,151 on Sep 11. Down 43,346 coins, or 13.5%.
📉 Price fell 5% over the same… pic.twitter.com/b1NRsXRRqF
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) September 14, 2026
From September 3 to 11, Bitcoin’s open interest fell from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, a 13.5% decrease. Meanwhile, the price dropped only 5% during the same period, excluding the effect of revaluation.
Current positioning is approximately 20% below levels preceding the mid-August rally. The decline stopped on September 11 and has shown slight growth over two sessions since then.
“News headlines will appear on Tuesday, but positioning changed last week,” Santiment noted.
Previously, CryptoQuant concluded that for Bitcoin to confirm a new bull market, it needs to consolidate above $81,700.
