- Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn says Bitcoin bottomed on 30 June and is now in an accumulation phase.
- Nine funds, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, cut 68,000 BTC of spot ETF exposure while wealth platforms and sovereign funds bought.
- Galaxy says a weekly close below the 50-week average of US$76,540 (AU$108,687) that is not regained within a month would challenge its view.
Bitcoin’s bear market ended with the 30 June low and the market has moved into accumulation, Galaxy Research said in a report published on 26 October.
Head of firmwide research Alex Thorn wrote the report, which Galaxy first sent to its trading and asset management clients on 22 October. Bitcoin traded at US$81,391 (AU$115,575) that day, 35% below its October 2025 high, according to the report.
Bitcoin lost its 50-week moving average in the week ended 16 November 2025 and spent 44 weeks below it, Galaxy said. It closed back above that line in the week ended 20 September. The week ended 18 October was its fifth straight close above it.
The 200-week average held as a floor during the June sell-off, with the worst weekly close 4.7% below it.
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Galaxy counted four earlier reclaims of the 50-week average that ended spells of 20 weeks or more below it. None of them later closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level within a year.
Each of the three completed halving cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after its halving, Galaxy said. The current cycle had reached day 916 when the report went to clients.
Sellers Have Thinned Out
Coins that had sat unmoved for five years or more changed hands at about 67,000 BTC a month in 2024, Galaxy said. That pace has slowed to 34,000 BTC a month so far in 2026. Galaxy Research tracked some of that supply in September, when four ancient Bitcoin whale wallets moved 1,971 BTC untouched since 2016.
Asset managers’ net long in CME Bitcoin futures is down 57% from the all-time-high week, to 18,400 BTC, according to CFTC data in the report.
Nine funds, including Millennium Management, Brevan Howard and Goldman Sachs, cut their spot ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC between the September 2025 quarter-end and June 2026. Morgan Stanley’s wealth arm, Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council added over the same period.
A weekly close below the 50-week average of US$76,540 (AU$108,687) that is not regained within a month would suggest the reclaim had failed, Galaxy said. ETF holdings falling below their 13 July trough of 1.22 million BTC would also change its view.
Thorn listed AI-enabled hacking among the risks. He cited US$3.4 billion (AU$4.83 billion) stolen across crypto in 2025 and the theft of 1,837 BTC through a Coldcard seed-generation flaw.
He said he saw no reason Bitcoin could not retake US$125,000 (AU$177,500), a level it had already reached in 2025.
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