On-chain metrics for the first cryptocurrency have declined for six consecutive months, according to CryptoQuant analyst G a a h.
Bitcoin Records Low Network Activity For Six Consecutive Months
“Last time a similar movement occurred was in 2024, when the price of Bitcoin underwent a slight correction of -30%” – By @gaah_im pic.twitter.com/1LiVhyD8UO
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 23, 2026
Active addresses have fallen to roughly 30,000. The last time a similar pattern occurred was in 2024, when bitcoin dropped 30% from its peak, the analyst noted.
Low activity typically signals waning interest and investor losses. G a a h stressed that the lack of new users and transactions points to a protracted consolidation phase: buyers are not yet prepared to enter at current levels.
Price
At the time of writing, the digital gold was trading around $66,300, down 2.7% over the past 24 hours.
On 23 February, the price fell to a local low of $64,435. Analysts attributed the drop to a combination of factors:
- mass unrest in Mexico cooled global investors’ appetite for risk assets;
- in the US, the pending home sales index fell to its lowest since 2001;
- US authorities announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%;
- market participants expect the Bank of Japan to shift to tighter monetary policy.
Bitcoin now trades 47.5% below the all-time high of $126,080, set in October 2025.
Forecasts
The trader known as Castillo Trading believes current levels may be an attractive entry for long positions. He said the first cryptocurrency has retested the nPOC — a key high-volume zone at $64,979 that had previously been left untouched.
There it is.
$64,979 nPOC closed on $BTC#Bitcoin https://t.co/pgthvMWXDa pic.twitter.com/BuaHGBLkcw
— Castillo Trading (@CastilloTrading) February 23, 2026
Judging by the chart, he expects a bounce from that level to $78,200.
The trader BitBull also saw potential for a rise towards $76,000. However, a fresh decline would follow after that, he said.
The analyst Roman remains bearish. He forecasts new cycle lows with a target of $50,000.
$BTC 1W
Volume increasing while price is going down is the definition of strong bearish price action.
We should expect trend to continue lower, especially to 50-52k area.
Likely get a bounce there but ultimately I’m expecting lower after that. pic.twitter.com/ldQ2bi51DX
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) February 23, 2026
“Rising volumes while the price is falling is a classic sign of a strong bearish move. One should expect the downtrend to continue, especially into the $50,000–52,000 area. A bounce from there is possible, but ultimately I expect further declines,” he wrote.
On-chain analysts IT Tech pointed to the Coinbase Premium, which remains negative. This indicates that US institutional buyers are not participating in the current market moves and are not buying the dip.
Coinbase Premium is still negative. Day after day.
US spot buyers are not here. They’re not buying the dip.
They’re watching.When Coinbase Premium flips green and holds — that’s when
institutional demand is back. Not before.Until then:
— No spot accumulation from US
— ETF… https://t.co/zwwBoOzO2V pic.twitter.com/MOwPWTmYZQ— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) February 23, 2026
The experts stressed that until the premium turns “green” and holds, it is premature to call a return of institutional demand. Under these conditions:
- US investors are not accumulating on the spot market;
- ETF dynamics do not confirm a bottom — since early February almost $1bn has been withdrawn from exchange-traded funds, according to SoSoValue;
- despite possible price stabilisation, there is no genuine buyer demand.
End of the market cycle
Meanwhile, big players are betting on a bitcoin rebound, sharply cutting short positions in the digital gold.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, noted that the bear market has already lasted 14 months and is close to its final stage. A similar view was voiced by CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, who pointed to the decline in USDT capitalisation.
The Coin Bureau information portal also said the sector is approaching the largest crash in its history. In their view, this may signal the end of the market cycle.
⚠️ CRYPTO MAY BE HEADING TOWARD ITS LARGEST CRASH EVER
The magnitude of losses now places this selloff among the most severe events in market history.
Over $2.22 TRILLION has already been erased, sending crypto down more than 50% from its peak.
This is now the 2nd biggest… pic.twitter.com/OoJzoJti4Q
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) February 23, 2026
The current sell-off has become one of the most significant events in financial-market history. Since the peak, crypto’s market capitalisation has fallen by more than $2.22trn (-50%).
It is the second-largest dollar drawdown for digital assets. A further $60bn would match the largest drop on record.
Over the past 24 months, 50% have ended positively for bitcoin. Based on these data, economist Timothy Peterson put the probability of bitcoin rising in ten months at 88%.
