A composite indicator of 45 on-chain metrics for the leading cryptocurrency is in a capitulation phase longer than any period since the collapse of the FTX exchange. This was highlighted by Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft.
The #Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap
Red when euphoric, blue during capitulation.
Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.
Always look for confluence when aiming to call a bottom. pic.twitter.com/dEPzhB2HHB
— Rafael (@n3ocortex) August 3, 2026
To assess the market’s position within the cycle, the specialist developed the Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. It consolidates various indicators into a heatmap: blue indicates capitulation, while red signals overheating near peaks. A significant portion of the metrics reflects the profitability of holders, divided into short-term and long-term.
In 2026, the map remains predominantly blue. A similar pattern occurred in 2022: after the euphoria of November 2021, indicators turned negative and stayed there until the FTX collapse in November 2022, which coincided with the digital gold’s low of $15,600.
“Today, the indicator is in its coldest phase since the FTX bankruptcy: a late bear market stage, but not yet the solid dark blue that previously marked a bottom,” said Schultze-Kraft.
Some metrics change behavior over time and require careful interpretation when assessing cycles, he noted. As an example, the analyst cited the dormancy indicator, which reflects the average period of coin inactivity in transactions: the investor base is aging, so values increase from cycle to cycle.
Network Activity Increases
Glassnode also reported a sharp rise in the number of active addresses and adjusted transfer volumes in the leading cryptocurrency’s network. Meanwhile, capital outflows stabilized, and weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs resumed.
The ratio of supply held by short-term and long-term holders remained near historical lows, indicating long-term investors are maintaining their positions, according to analysts. Meanwhile, the share of coins in profit approached cycle lows.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $64,600 after an unsuccessful attempt to hold above $66,000.
Earlier, on August 2, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell below $63,000 amid capital outflows from crypto funds and security concerns following the Coldcard hack.
