If the S&P 500 index undergoes a prolonged 20% correction, the leading cryptocurrency will inevitably fall to its long-term support level around $10,000, warned Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Bitcoin Sell Signals — Elevated Stocks, Fed Hikes
It’s a highly volatile and speculative digital asset, correlated with the stock market and now burdened by being beta for millions of crypto companions.
Bitcoin’s performance has roughly matched the S&P 500 over the past five… pic.twitter.com/NXJAkMdUgB
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) September 13, 2026
In a new market review, he described Bitcoin as a “puppet of the stock market” and identified three sell signals.
Three Pressure Factors
McGlone highlighted reasons why Bitcoin might decline:
- The price rebound stalled at $76,746, failing to break the psychological barrier of $80,000;
- One-year futures on the Fed funds rate (FF13-FF1) indicate a 70 basis point hike, draining liquidity from speculative markets;
- The S&P 500 has moved critically far above its 200-week moving average, significantly increasing the risk of profit-taking by institutional investors.
Bitcoin Underperforms as an Asset
McGlone emphasized that over the past five years, the return on digital gold has only matched the S&P 500, while investors faced nearly three times the volatility.
“From a risk management and portfolio perspective, it’s a failure,” the analyst stressed.
Moreover, created in 2009 as a unique tool amid the global financial crisis, Bitcoin now bears the burden of increased beta for “millions” of competing cryptocurrencies. This ties it to the trajectory of tech stocks, the analyst noted.
An Alternative Exists
The only scenario that could disprove the bearish forecast is Bitcoin’s sustained strength amid a declining stock market. If the asset proves its independence and begins to rise despite falling stocks, the thesis of a “high-beta risk asset” will be false, McGlone noted.
For now, macroeconomic indicators point in the opposite direction.
McGlone has consistently maintained the forecast of a return to $10,000 since at least December 2025. He later argued that the main catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth—spot ETFs, Trump’s political support, and institutional adoption—have already been priced in by the market. In April, the analyst linked a potential Bitcoin crash to the loss of key Fibonacci retracement levels around $75,000.
Adam Back Disagrees
Crypto industry veteran and Blockstream CEO Adam Back suggested that Bitcoin is unlikely to sustainably fall below $65,000.
#bitcoin passes $65k 200wma https://t.co/6W3RSiLkB3 pic.twitter.com/dpANttnQG3
— Adam Back (@adam3us) September 13, 2026
The 200-day moving average price has risen to this level. Historically, this indicator is considered a mathematical lower bound. Only during deep bear phases have prices briefly fallen below this line.
Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is stuck around $77,000. The asset lacks spot demand while investors await the Fed’s decision on the key rate.
