For the first time, China’s AgiBot has become the leader in the global humanoid robot market for the first half of 2026, according to a report by Smart Analytics Global (SAG).
The company shipped approximately 8,400 robots, capturing a 44% market share. Unitree, with around 5,900 units, fell to second place with a 31% share.
In total, manufacturers delivered about 19,100 humanoids from January to June, more than triple the figure from the previous year. Chinese companies almost entirely dominate the market, accounting for 97% of global shipments.
From Demonstrations to Industry
One of the main findings of the report is a shift in demand structure. While a year ago humanoids were mainly used in research and experimental projects, now the majority of shipments are for industrial and commercial purposes.
Their share increased from about 50% in the first half of 2025 to over 70% in 2026. Robots are being deployed on production lines, in warehouses, and other environments where repetitive physical tasks are required.
However, the market growth is not solely driven by fully autonomous robots. Manufacturers are actively supplying platforms for pilot projects and application software development, so high shipment rates do not yet equate to comparable revenue growth or widespread adoption.
China’s Market Becomes a Battleground
AgiBot and Unitree accounted for the majority of global shipments, but their competition follows different models. Unitree is known for its relatively affordable robots, widely used by researchers and developers. AgiBot focuses on a broader range of industrial and commercial applications.
As a result, in the first half of the year, AgiBot shipped about 2,500 more units than Unitree. The gap was significant enough to alter the global market dynamics for the first time.
Another indicator of the industry’s maturity is the expansion of supply geography. Chinese manufacturers are no longer confined to the domestic market and are increasing exports while competing for contracts with American, European, and other robotics developers.
SAG Projects 500,000 Robots by 2030
The report’s authors expect global humanoid shipments to approach 60,000 units by the end of 2026, with industry revenue around $1.6 billion. In 2027, the market is projected by SAG to grow to nearly $3 billion, with shipments potentially reaching 500,000 robots by 2030.
However, analysts note that future growth will depend more on the maturity of the technologies than on manufacturers’ ability to increase production. SAG identifies key challenges including:
- lack of real-world data for training;
- capabilities of AI models;
- robot reliability;
- precision in manipulation;
- safety and cost.
The segment of multimodal VLA and world models is rapidly developing but remains in its early stages. The key transition for the industry is from robots that can impressively demonstrate capabilities to systems that reliably operate in the real world.
Geopolitics and regulation pose additional risks. Recent U.S. restrictions on importing foreign-made robots could complicate Chinese companies’ entry into developed overseas markets, affecting supply chains, partnerships, and investments. Additionally, SAG points to uncertainty surrounding the regulation of highly realistic humanoids and human-AI interaction.
Meanwhile, the mass market for home robots remains a distant prospect: SAG does not expect universal humanoids for household tasks to reach significant scale in the next five years due to the complexity and unpredictability of domestic environments.
According to a forecast by Morgan Stanley, the volume of Chinese humanoid robot shipments in 2026 is expected to reach 50,000 units.
