The crypto market’s recovery has reopened debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Solstice CEO Ben Nadaraski linked the waning boom-and-bust pattern to rising market liquidity and institutional participation, according to Cointelegraph.
Several indicators have improved in recent weeks. One measure of U.S. dollar capital available within the crypto market is the supply of stablecoins. According to DefiLlama, their combined market capitalization reached $306.7 billion, up 0.47% over seven days and 1.23% over 30 days.
In early September, The Block Research, in a joint report with Socure, noted that the stock of stablecoins hardly shrank even as Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its peak. In the 2022–2023 bear market, the supply of stablecoins declined alongside trading activity.
The authors attributed the shift to expanding stablecoin use cases. Beyond crypto trading, they are used in payments, remittances, tokenized assets (RWA) and other financial services.
Growth is uneven across networks. On Solana, the stablecoin supply stands at about $16.87 billion at the time of writing and over 30 days has increased by 7.35%. The weekly gain was 4.97%.
This is notably faster than the overall market. However, a rise in one network may reflect not only new capital but also shifts of capital between blockchains.
Capital is moving more actively
Another sign of changing conditions is greater use of liquidity already in the market. According to DefiLlama, trading volume on DEX platforms increased 3.73% over the past week. Over 30 days, volumes totaled $265.1 billion.
Meanwhile, Wintermute experts estimated that at the recent low, aggregate inflows via existing channels, including ETF and stablecoins, fell to 2.4% of crypto market capitalization. The metric has begun to recover in recent weeks but remains well below levels seen in previous bull cycles.
The firm believes the market may need an additional channel for capital inflows to form a new sustainable cycle. Analysts name RWA as one candidate.
On September 21, Glassnode also observed a shift in BTC buyer behavior. The flow of market orders on centralized exchanges turned from net selling to buying, and spot trading volumes rose.
Bitcoin touches $86k, up more than 10% from last Sunday’s close.
Spot and perpetual buyers lead while leverage and profit-taking slowly rise with price.
ETF flows are the one reading still pointing the other way.https://t.co/ITbwts4aLz pic.twitter.com/Gqx3bPgJDZ
— glassnode (@glassnode) September 21, 2026
The monthly change in realized capitalization exceeded the upper bound of Glassnode’s statistical range. Analysts view this as a sign that capital is entering at higher prices.
The share of the most active, price-sensitive capital also approached the top of the range.
These data point to a change in the structure of Bitcoin demand but do not prove the start of a broad bull phase. For that, gains would need to extend beyond a single asset and be accompanied by a more pronounced increase in available capital.
Glassnode also noted the flip side of the rebound: leverage and profit-taking are rising alongside spot demand. That increases the market’s sensitivity to abrupt shifts in sentiment.
The four-year model
The idea of liquidity’s growing role raises the question of how useful it still is to explain crypto cycles primarily through Bitcoin halvings. Historically, a reduction in miner rewards was followed by a period of growth, then a peak and a prolonged correction.
Danny Galindo, executive director at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Global Investment Office, still sees the four-year model as a useful guide, CoinDesk reported. He noted that four completed cycles included roughly three years of growth and 12–14 months of “crypto winter.”
By his calculation, September is roughly 11 months from the October 2025 peak and 17 months before the next halving. That timing is close to when the recovery phase began in previous cycles.
Other indicators are less clear. During the current correction, Bitcoin lost about 53% from its high, whereas prior bear markets saw 77%–84% declines. As CoinDesk noted, the Thermocap Multiple, which compares the market capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency with the aggregate value of coins issued by miners, fell to around 13. In previous cycles, the bottom formed at single-digit readings.
Galindo emphasized that the historical sample is limited and signals may be premature or false. He views these metrics as guides rather than forecasting tools.
On September 19, Bitcoin returned to levels above $80,000 amid large-scale short covering. A few days later, the first cryptocurrency tested $85,000 for the first time since January.
