Bitcoin rose 24% in August — its best monthly performance since November 2024, according to CoinGlass.
Over the month, bitcoin rebounded from around $64,000 and briefly rose above $81,000. By the final weekend of August, momentum faded: after a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, prices fell to $76,877 and have yet to revisit local highs.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $78,000. Rising expectations for a U.S. rate hike are weighing on risk assets. The market puts the probability of such a move at the September 16 meeting at about 64%, according to CME FedWatch.
Spot volumes remain near three-year lows
Despite August’s strong result, a broad recovery in trading activity has yet to emerge.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that bitcoin spot volumes on the largest centralized exchanges remain near the lows of September 2023.
🗞️ Bitcoin volumes hold near 3-year lows despite 30% August rally.
During the month of August, bitcoin:native delivered a performance exceeding 30%, yet trading volumes across various exchanges continue to show a certain weakness, in line with the trend seen in July.
These… pic.twitter.com/92rgcIDENK
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) August 30, 2026
On Binance, the figure for August 2026 was about $44 billion versus $198 billion in October 2025. At Gate, volume fell from $53.4 billion to $14 billion; at Bybit, from $41.2 billion to $17.4 billion. On average, the three venues saw a decline of roughly 70%.
That said, the drop in activity has stopped accelerating. Binance’s volume was about $1.6 billion higher than in July, and other major platforms were broadly stable versus the prior month. Darkfost called this the first sign that the downturn is stalling.
Local demand emerges in South Korea
Against this backdrop, a positive signal came from South Korea. Bitcoin on the country’s largest exchange, Upbit, trades about 1% above Binance. The positive “kimchi premium” has persisted for a week — the longest streak since early May, Korean trader crypto sunmoon noted.
Korean Investors are Returning to the Crypto Market
“And much like the Coinbase Premium, the shift from negative to positive territory has typically been followed by a positive trend.” – By @t0_god pic.twitter.com/UGCN0DCSTX
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 1, 2026
For most of the summer, the reverse was true. In early June, the discount on the Korean market reached 3.1%, and on average in August bitcoin traded there 0.25% below global venues.
At the same time, 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen told Bloomberg that the return of the “kimchi premium” has not yet been accompanied by rising spot volumes. In his view, that reduces the likelihood that South Korean traders will be the primary driver of bitcoin’s recovery at this stage.
Large wallets increased BTC holdings
August’s rally was accompanied by a shift in coins toward larger holders. According to CryptoQuant, from August 1 to 30, wallets with balances above 100 BTC increased holdings by roughly 60,000 BTC.
At the same time, addresses holding 1 to 100 BTC cut positions by about 33,000 BTC, and those with less than 1 BTC by another 14,000 BTC. Buying by large participants accelerated after bitcoin broke out of the $62,000–$65,000 range on August 19. By August 30, the analyst had not observed signs of large-scale distribution of the coins they accumulated.
Glassnode reports mixed signals
Institutional demand remains resilient. Glassnode noted continued inflows into U.S. bitcoin ETFs and that most positions in these products are profitable.
bitcoin:native holds near $78,300 after rallying from $64k lows. Institutional inflows stay strong, but rising leverage, tight volatility spreads, and softening retail activity point to a cautious, transitional market.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇https://t.co/9xBw0Ix5KV pic.twitter.com/0bnhhLY990
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 31, 2026
At the same time, analysts observed a cooling in spot and retail activity. Exchange volumes declined, the number of active addresses and total fees dipped, although on-chain transfer volumes remain elevated.
In derivatives, speculative appetite is rising: interest in options is increasing, and the spread between implied and realized volatility is narrowing.
Glassnode characterizes the current phase as transitional: steady institutional demand and improvements in several on-chain metrics coexist with rising leverage, weakening retail interest, and early signs of distribution.
On August 25, bitcoin rose above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May. At that time, U.S. spot ETFs attracted about $2.26 billion over six trading sessions.
