On August 26, the crypto fear and greed index pulled back to 65 after jumping to 74 a day earlier, according to Alternative.me. At the same time, open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures fell to near a five-month low, despite bitcoin gaining 22.4% over the week (CoinGecko).
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading just below $79,000 after reaching $80,000 during the recent rally. The drop in OI and moderate funding rates suggest the rise has not yet been accompanied by a broad build-up of leveraged longs.
Another indicator also points to a swift recovery: CryptoQuant’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 over the week, the highest since October 6, 2025, according to CoinDesk. Eight of the ten on-chain and market metrics the firm tracks are in bullish territory.
CryptoQuant estimates that visible spot demand is growing at the fastest pace since late December. Analysts are seeing simultaneous increases in spot and futures demand for the first time since early October 2025.
Open interest fell despite price gains
According to Glassnode, open interest denominated in bitcoin fell from 645,760 BTC on August 14 to 587,584 BTC. That is the lowest in nearly five months.
Over the same period, the price of bitcoin rose from about $62,000 to $80,000. Moves of that size are typically accompanied by rising open interest as new leveraged positions are opened. This time, the metric fell instead.
A significant part of the initial impulse came from short covering. Funding rates on perpetual futures remain below 10% annualized. According to CoinDesk, the level reflects a moderate tilt toward longs and does not yet point to aggressive long accumulation.
The collateral mix has also shifted. Open interest in coin-margined futures dropped to about 52,000 BTC, a record low. Such contracts account for 11% of the market.
Spot ETFs add another $314 million
Against declining open interest, inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin-ETFs continued. On August 25, the funds attracted $314.3 million — the seventh straight positive trading session. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $284.4 million.
Leverage rises in XRP
In some altcoins, the market structure already looks different. After a roughly 42% weekly rise in XRP, the estimated leverage ratio on Binance rose to 0.21, the highest since January. CryptoQuant’s metric compares derivatives open interest with the asset’s exchange reserves; an increase indicates more leveraged positions relative to available collateral.
Over 24 hours, XRP futures trading volume reached about $6.4 billion versus $1.2 billion on the spot market. OI was $3.45 billion. According to CoinGlass, on Binance there are about two accounts with long positions for every one with a short. Among the largest traders, the ratio approaches three to one.
On August 26, XRP fell nearly 5% to $1.44. With longs prevailing, further declines increase the likelihood of forced liquidations and could deepen the pullback.
Earlier, BlackRock analysts maintained a positive view of bitcoin’s role in investment portfolios after a drop of more than 50% from the October peak. They called the sell-off the result of deleveraging and capital rotation rather than a fundamental change in the first cryptocurrency’s investment case.
In August, CryptoQuant experts concluded that digital gold may be approaching the end of its bearish phase, as on-chain metrics show early signs of a recovery in spot demand.
