CryptoQuant analysts have described the new Strategy capital management program as a step towards reducing liquidity risks. However, they noted that the company still lacks clear rules for buying and selling the leading cryptocurrency.
Strategy changed course just six days after our warning.
The company has now:
• Paused Bitcoin purchases
• Rebuilt its USD reserve from $1.44B to $3.0B
• Doubled dividend coverage from 14 to ~29 months
• Raised STRC’s dividend to 12%
• Sold $466.7M of MSTR and ~3,588 BTC… pic.twitter.com/O3XKuV4URo— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 16, 2026
“The Strategy program is a true course correction. To complete this turnaround, they need to establish two things: a systematic model for Bitcoin purchase timing and a disciplined approach to selling in a rising market. Until then, the turnaround has room for improvement,” wrote CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno.
The firm introduced a five-part plan at the end of June. It includes:
- A USD reserve solely for preferred stock dividends and debt interest, with a minimum coverage of 12 months of payments;
- Increasing the dividend on STRC preferred shares to 12% annually with monthly reviews;
- Repurchasing up to $1 billion in preferred shares, prioritizing STRC;
- Repurchasing up to $1 billion in common MSTR shares if management deems them undervalued;
- A Bitcoin monetization program: selling up to $1.25 billion worth of coins to replenish reserves, dividends, interest, or fund buybacks.
Separately, the initiative calls for more disciplined stock issuance when Strategy trades near 1x mNAV.
The plan emerged a few days after CryptoQuant’s “unsolicited advice”. At that time, analysts recommended pausing Bitcoin purchases and rebuilding the USD reserve following a sharp decline in STRC dividend coverage.
The first part of the Strategy has largely been implemented, Moreno noted. From June 29 to July 5, the company sold ~3,588 BTC for ~$216 million, then raised $466.7 million through MSTR stock sales.
According to the expert, the USD reserve grew from $1.44 billion to $3 billion. Dividend coverage doubled from approximately 14 to 29 months. The Bitcoin reserve remained at 843,775 BTC. Strategy has not yet conducted buybacks of preferred and common shares.
Moreno also pointed out the dynamics of STRC. After the program’s launch and dividend increase, shares recovered from a low of around $75 at the end of June to about $85, but still trade significantly below the $100 par value.
However, two questions remain unanswered, according to the analyst.
- When to resume Bitcoin purchases. The stock issuance rule at 1x mNAV regulates capital raising, not deployment. Without a model considering valuations, the company risks “buying local peaks” again.
- How to sell cryptocurrency in the next bull cycle. The current monetization program is defensive. It does not provide for partial realization or hedging at cycle peaks. According to Moreno, such comprehensive sales discipline is the second half of active capital management.
Earlier in July, JPMorgan analysts criticized Strategy’s decision to sell Bitcoin. They stated that the launch of this mechanism created a “two-sided risk for the market that could have been avoided.”
