The NUPL indicator has approached levels that historically preceded market bottoms. If this pattern holds, the price of Bitcoin could fall below $58,000, warned CryptoQuant analyst TheChessOnChain.
Four Bitcoin Bottoms, One Signal: the 100-Day NUPL Below Zero
“Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend.” – By @thechessONCHAIN pic.twitter.com/STHpJ86WgV— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 7, 2026
According to him, the 100-day EMA-smoothed NUPL metric has historically coincided with the end of bear phases.
“This was the case at the end of 2011 (around $2), in January 2015 ($182), in December 2018 ($3206), and in November 2022 amid the FTX collapse ($15,792),” wrote TheChessOnChain.
Currently, the indicator is around 0.215 and continues to decline with Bitcoin trading at approximately $63,000. The analyst believes this leaves room for further decline.
However, the expert emphasized that this is a historical pattern, not a mandatory scenario. He suggested that the indicator might either cross zero again or this cycle could be the first to bottom without such a signal.
“The zero line is a level to watch in the coming weeks,” concluded TheChessOnChain.
Market Overview
After nearly a week of growth, Bitcoin has started to decline for the first time since early July. The price has retreated to $63,000 after reaching a two-week high of around $64,500.
Despite the price recovery, derivatives market data does not yet confirm the sustainability of the upward movement. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased from 776,000 BTC on July 3 to the current 740,000 BTC, indicating reduced trader activity.
Weak demand in the spot market also casts doubt on the sustainability of the growth. This is indicated by:
- flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, from which over $4 billion was withdrawn in June, according to SoSoValue;
- the dynamics of the Coinbase Premium Index, reflecting the activity of American investors. According to CoinGlass, the index remains in negative territory.
Earlier in July, analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio approached values typical of the final phases of bear markets.
