The leading cryptocurrency has been trading below the average market price and the cost basis of short-term holders for five months. According to Glassnode, this is one of the longest periods of “deep undervaluation” in the asset’s history.
Long-term investors are actively realizing losses, accounting for 43% of the total realized volume on the network. This group is losing about $280 million daily, the highest since December 2022. Analysts describe this as capitulation, which typically precedes the formation of a price bottom.
Meanwhile, there is a continued outflow of funds from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. On July 8, the net outflow was $84.86 million. Trading volumes in the sector have dropped by 80% compared to the peak levels of last fall.
In contrast, the Ethereum ETF segment has seen capital inflows for the fifth consecutive day.
Experts from QCP Capital noted that the market lacks a “monetary cushion.” Weak labor markets in the U.S. and high inflation limit the Federal Reserve’s options.
Glassnode believes that conditions for a trend reversal have already formed at the blockchain and derivatives level. However, for a confirmed rise, bitcoin needs to stabilize above $76,600, and sales by major players must decrease.
Earlier, on July 7, CryptoQuant analyst TheChessOnChain highlighted the risk of the leading cryptocurrency falling below $58,000.
On July 8, the price of digital gold dropped to around $61,700 following renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
