The price of the leading cryptocurrency remains 15% below the true average market price of $77,200. According to analysts at Glassnode, on-chain metrics indicate a continued bearish trend.
Short-term holders have not yet broken even. The MVRV ratio for this group has increased from 0.81 to 0.9 but remains below the critical threshold of 1. On average, coins were purchased at $72,600, so the recent rise to $65,000 has not covered the losses.
Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the past 90 days, amounting to $1.07 trillion. This confirms a net capital outflow from the network. For a transition to a bullish phase, the metric needs to return to growth, and the price must stabilize above $77,200.
Macroeconomic Impact
Experts attribute the price decline in May-June to a “war premium.” Following news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, tensions eased. WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold lost its protective premium. During this period, Bitcoin stabilized in the $65,000-$66,000 range.
The situation with spot liquidity has improved. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeded sell orders. Passive buyers have begun actively absorbing supply around $60,000.
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has decreased. Expected volatility has normalized, dropping from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. The main risk zone (negative gamma) is concentrated at $68,000, where dealers will need to actively hedge positions if the price rises.
Analysts concluded that the market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery depends on liquidity inflows and the ability of buyers to maintain current levels.
Earlier, on June 18, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell below $64,000. The market reacted negatively to the outcomes of the first Federal Reserve meeting led by Kevin Warsh.
