A fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 20,000 physical qubits would require 26 days to break the cryptography of secp256k1, according to IonQ.
The first complete, end-to-end fault-tolerant resource estimate for running Shor’s algorithm—the team used IonQ’s Walking Cat architecture to demonstrate how a specific application can be optimized for a trapped-ion quantum computer.
This work concludes that a… pic.twitter.com/5ONOVHWxww
— IonQ (@IonQ_Inc) September 8, 2026
Simultaneously, the company announced an $8.18 million contract to protect corporate data from quantum attacks.
20,000 Qubits vs. secp256k1
IonQ researchers conducted a comprehensive resource estimate for running Shor’s algorithm against secp256k1, the elliptic curve used in Bitcoin and other cryptographic systems.
According to their calculations, solving the discrete logarithm problem would require 19,397 physical qubits, 1,457 logical qubits, and about 39 million logical Toffoli gates. With this configuration, the computation would take approximately 25.7 days per attempt.
IonQ claims to have provided the first such estimate tailored to a specific quantum computer architecture, considering not only the algorithm but also the compiler, hardware architecture, and error correction system.
This is a resource estimate, not a demonstrated attack. IonQ aligns these requirements with its roadmap and expects to develop the necessary systems around 2028.
Implications for Bitcoin
The threat is not related to Bitcoin mining or its consensus mechanism but to cryptographic signatures on elliptic curves. A sufficiently powerful fault-tolerant quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to solve the relevant mathematical problem.
IonQ notes that its estimate primarily concerns data authentication and integrity, not decrypting already intercepted information. The company also points out that post-quantum signature algorithms like ML-DSA and SLH-DSA are not susceptible to this class of attacks.
Protection Becomes Business
On the same day, IonQ announced a $8.18 million agreement with Congruity360. The partners will create a quantum-safe network infrastructure for corporate clients in the U.S.
Congruity360 will integrate IonQ’s devices for post-quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution into its enterprise data management platform. Specifically, Clavis QKD pairs and Solteris network devices will secure data transmission between sites.
The solution targets companies in finance, healthcare, insurance, defense, manufacturing, law, and higher education—sectors where data often needs to be stored and protected for many years.
In August, StarkWare developers conducted the first quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet.
