Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has dropped to 36%, but the market hasn’t become safer—cheap options could accelerate price movements. Analysts highlighted this in a conversation with CoinDesk.
Adam Hymes, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, stated that low volatility makes opening positions cheaper. If the market approaches a level with a high concentration of bets, hedging by market makers could speed up price changes.
According to the expert, this phase should not be seen as a “calm,” especially with weak trading volumes and limited market depth.
“Low volatility should not be confused with low risk. It’s a reason to be cautious with leverage,” Hymes added.
Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent, noted a weakening demand for put options and a lack of strong bets on growth. He said the market might form a minimal price range for the current cycle in the coming weeks.
Among potential positive catalysts, the top manager mentioned progress with the CLARITY Act and institutional inflows into crypto-ETFs. Risks include a breakdown in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and an inflation shock.
Other Data
Analysts at Alphractal on X reported that 303 days have passed since Bitcoin’s all-time high, with Bitcoin down 48.4% since then.
It has now been 303 days since Bitcoin’s all-time high, and BTC continues to move through one of the longest drawdown periods of this cycle.
Bitcoin is currently about 48.4% below its ATH, while the deepest drawdown of this cycle reached 53.1% on Day 267.
Compared with previous… pic.twitter.com/uFdrOZuAX4
— Alphractal (@Alphractal) August 5, 2026
The deepest drawdown of this cycle reached 53.1% on day 267.
“The question now is not only how much further Bitcoin can fall, but also how long it will take for the trend to finally change,” Alphractal emphasized.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that even with Bitcoin priced around $64,600, the demand indicator for the asset has remained negative for five consecutive months. In his assessment, the current rebound still “lacks fuel.”
Bitcoin has climbed to $64.6K, but the demand indicator has remained negative for five straight months.
The rebound still lacks fuel — I break down what that means in Morning Brief 229 👇https://t.co/VDy4YJTOll pic.twitter.com/guXgOdAyOM
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 6, 2026
Nevertheless, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for the third consecutive session. On August 5, the products attracted a net $244.4 million.
On the same day, $60 million flowed into Ethereum ETFs as well.
Earlier, CryptoQuant noted accumulation by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP whales.
