On September 3, the U.S. will implement additional tariffs of 25% and 100% on certain categories of imported drones and components. Sources told TechCrunch the restrictions may not fully split the American and Chinese robotics industries but could deepen regional market fragmentation.
On August 13, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the relevant document. Under the text, an additional 100% tariff will apply to drones with a maximum takeoff weight of more than 25 kg, units with thermal cameras, docking stations, and a number of components, unless they are covered by the preferential regime.
For drones with a maximum takeoff weight of up to 25 kg without thermal cameras, the rate will be 25%.
Starting February 9, 2027, the additional 25% tariff will also extend to a number of other components, including propellers, rotors, and landing gear, imported for use in drones.
Products from the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are subject to a 15% cap on the combined rate; for the United Kingdom, 10%. The preferential regime applies if the importer confirms that almost all critical components and technologies originate from the U.S. or the listed countries.
For companies whose products as of September 2 are on the Blue UAS Cleared List, Blue UAS Framework or a conditional approval list, application of the new tariffs is postponed for 180 days. Companies with a government-approved plan to localize production in the U.S. will also be able to temporarily import necessary products without additional duties.
The proclamation cites national security risks and the U.S. industry’s reliance on foreign supply chains.
China retains a scale advantage
The measures may protect part of the U.S. market, but they do not directly remove China’s advantage in manufacturing scale and cost, the sources told TechCrunch.
According to Counterpoint Research, in the first half of 2026 global humanoid robot shipments exceeded 22,000 units, rising nearly 300% year over year.
The five largest manufacturers — AGIBOT, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH and Leju Robotics — were Chinese. Together they accounted for 86% of global shipments.
TDK Ventures investment director Ankur Saxena highlighted the different competitive strengths of the two countries:
“The U.S. leads in advanced AI, software and semiconductor innovation. China — in manufacturing scale, supply chain depth and cost.”
In his view, lower prices allow Chinese manufacturers to expand their fleets of working robots faster. That gives them more real-world operating data, while higher output further reduces costs.
Counterpoint Research lead analyst Soumen Mandal also pointed to Chinese companies’ expansion of in-house component development and their ability to leverage the country’s established industrial base.
Chinese manufacturers target other regions
Even with reduced access to the U.S. market, Chinese manufacturers retain a large domestic market and the ability to expand into other countries. According to Mandal, companies are already focusing on price-sensitive markets with labor shortages in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
The analyst expects a scenario similar to the development of China’s auto industry: scale up domestically, enter foreign markets, and then localize production.
One of the main sources of demand could be countries with labor shortages and aging populations. This primarily concerns industry, where humanoids can be used for repetitive tasks.
Drones show a potential market-split scenario
Heven AeroTech founder Bencion Levinson considers the drone market an early example of how robotics may evolve overall. In his view, two different models are already taking shape:
- the U.S. model, where equipment origin and security requirements carry more weight;
- the Chinese model, focused on mass production and lower cost.
Levinson believes Western companies will struggle to compete with Chinese manufacturers in the low-cost consumer segment. Instead, they can focus on long-range autonomous systems for defense and critical infrastructure.
He named power systems and payload architecture as the next areas of competition. As drone capabilities grow, battery limits are becoming a more significant factor.
Instead of two markets, several may emerge
Sources who spoke to TechCrunch do not expect a complete split into U.S. and Chinese ecosystems.
Saxena sees a more realistic path in a diversified supply chain involving U.S. allies. Japan has expertise in industrial robotics and precision manufacturing, South Korea in electronics, batteries and automotive, and Taiwan in semiconductors.
However, these countries cannot yet fully replace China due to the deep integration of Chinese components into global supply chains.
As a result, several regional markets may form: Chinese companies will continue to compete on price and scale; U.S. and allied manufacturers — in segments with higher security requirements; and companies from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will try to occupy an intermediate niche.
On July 28, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission included foreign advanced robotic devices in the Covered List, providing exceptions for products with conditional government approval.
