Bitcoin is showing signs of being in the late stages of a downturn, but it’s too early to declare a cycle bottom. According to VanEck’s assessment, only two-thirds of capitulation indicators are currently active.
Eight out of 12 Signals
VanEck monitors 12 metrics that should reflect market conditions during significant sell-offs: BTC drawdown, mining economics, holder behavior, and other indicators. Currently, eight out of the 12 indicators are in the capitulation zone, with all 12 having reached such levels at least once in the past three months.
At first glance, this appears to be a classic signal of an approaching bottom. The cryptocurrency has already lost about 49% from its all-time high set in October 2025, and the 30-day realized volatility has dropped to 27.2%—significantly below the long-term average of around 80%. The price has stabilized in the range of approximately $62,000–$66,500.
However, analysts advise caution in drawing conclusions.
History Doesn’t Promise Quick Recovery
VanEck experts compared the current situation with previous periods when eight to 12 capitulation indicators were simultaneously triggered.
The result was somewhat unexpected. The average Bitcoin return 90 days after such signals was 12.8%, and 180 days later, it was 32%.
For comparison, the typical historical return of the asset over these horizons is 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
The advantage was only evident over a one-year period. However, VanEck cautioned that the sample size is small and overlaps significantly in certain periods, making it unreliable for confident forecasting.
In other words, capitulation may indeed indicate that most of the sell-off is over, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal, analysts emphasized.
Current Cycle Differs from Previous Ones
VanEck expects the current downturn to be less severe than in past cycles.
Previous major bear markets for Bitcoin were accompanied by declines of 78–94%. Currently, the drawdown is about 49%. Analysts attribute the potential difference to the emergence of U.S. spot ETFs, a significantly larger share of institutional investors, and the absence of systemic collapses like Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX.
Another factor is the cycle’s duration. The last three bear markets, excluding the first cycle, averaged 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown. Bitcoin is now approximately 10-11 months past the October peak.
Historical models suggest the potential start of an accumulation phase from around September to November 2026, according to VanEck specialists.
Long-Term Holders Continue to Sell
Analysts noted the behavior of long-term investors as a concerning signal. Over 30 days, the volume of coins held for more than a year decreased by approximately 356,000 BTC—to 11.84 million BTC or 2.9%. The share of supply held by this cohort of investors fell below 60% for the first time in several months.
This means that even after nearly a 50% drawdown, some long-term holders continue to liquidate positions. This does not resemble a fully formed accumulation phase, experts believe.
On the other hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin-ETFs are already showing the opposite trend. Over the past 30 days, they have seen about $663 million in net inflows, whereas a month earlier, they lost approximately 40,010 BTC, or $2.4 billion.
Previously, CryptoQuant estimated that the leading cryptocurrency might be approaching the end of its bearish phase, as on-chain metrics show early signs of a recovery in spot demand.
