Bernstein analysts have maintained an “ambitious” forecast for Bitcoin, setting a year-end target of $150,000. They described the 54% decline from the October peak as “mild,” according to The Block.
The current correction has lasted about three quarters, the experts noted. Historically, major bear phases have extended for 12-15 months, with price drops from local highs ranging from 75-90%.
According to them, this trend indicates the maturity of the crypto market. However, it remains unclear whether the downturn has fully ended, Bernstein observed.
Factors Supporting the Forecast
Bernstein believes that fundamental factors remain favorable for Bitcoin’s continued growth. One of these is capital flows.
Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow through corporate Bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to about $10 billion.
Meanwhile, investors have withdrawn $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds. However, against the backdrop of structured assets totaling $74 billion, Bernstein described this outflow as limited. Corporate buyers ensured a positive net inflow.
The primary source of demand remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Bernstein estimates the company’s debt burden at about 13% of its Bitcoin portfolio’s value, with sufficient liquidity to cover interest payments and dividends for over 17 months.
Analysts also noted that Strategy retains the option to sell Bitcoin worth up to $1.25 billion to finance dividends, interest payments, and share buybacks.
At the same time, the company’s purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, some of which reallocated capital into AI infrastructure and data centers.
Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation. Bernstein pointed to:
- the advancement of the GENIUS Act bill on stablecoins;
- the launch of perpetual cryptocurrency futures through Kalshi and Coinbase;
- the growth of the RWA market, which has reached about $52 billion.
The company estimated the probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 at approximately 50%.
Historical Signal Activated
A similar conclusion based on another metric was presented by specialists from K33. According to their observations, more than half of Bitcoin’s supply is currently at a loss. Over the month, this figure rose from about 30% to over 50%. More than 10 million BTC were last moved at prices higher than the current ones.
K33 estimates that historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and usually preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks:
- in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the minimum was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared;
- in 2017, it took 31 days.
The exception was the 2014 cycle, where it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, with the price dropping another 46% during that time.
As additional confirmation, analysts cited Bitcoin’s return to the 200-week moving average—a level that accompanied all previous market lows. Simultaneously, the RSI fell to its lowest since November 2018, and the Fear and Greed Index reached 8 (“extreme fear”).
However, K33 emphasized that the current cycle may differ from previous ones. One pressure factor, experts believe, is the massive capital outflow from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC—the largest figure in observation history.
Despite this, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the supply—a record share that the company views as a sign of sustained long-term demand.
K33 believes that the $60,000 area could already serve as a benchmark for long-term accumulation and potentially mark the bottom of the current cycle.
In July, CryptoQuant analyst TheChessOnChain suggested that Bitcoin could fall below $58,000.
