Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly boost economic productivity, but its substantial impact will only be felt in a few years. This view was expressed by Jim Reid, head of macroeconomic and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“In my entire career, I have not encountered a technology with such potential for productivity enhancement as AI. However, it will take companies several years to fully integrate it into their processes and reap the maximum benefits,” he noted.
Reid acknowledged that after the rapid rise of AI company stocks in the tech sector, a correction is possible. However, the long-term impact of the technology will extend beyond market cycles—the world will undergo a period of adaptation, which may involve high volatility and a reassessment of expectations.
The expert also believes that the development of LLM will not lead to mass job losses. According to him, previous technological breakthroughs raised similar concerns but ultimately did not reduce overall employment levels. AI is more likely to become a tool for enhancing labor efficiency rather than replacing human workers, Reid is convinced.
He separately assessed the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the economy. The expert explained that over the past 250-300 years, the introduction of new technologies has increased productivity but has not led to sustained inflation reduction. Despite business efficiency growth, AI development may also come with additional inflationary risks.
Investments Outpace Returns
Reid’s position aligns with the conclusions of several major financial institutions. In its annual World Outlook review, Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the current pace of technology development is highly likely to lead to significant productivity growth, but its real effects will only be seen after 2026.
Meanwhile, investment in AI infrastructure continues to grow. Wall Street analysts’ consensus forecast for capital expenditures by major tech companies this year is $527 billion, up from $465 billion expected at the start of the third-quarter earnings season.
However, the scale of investments currently outpaces measurable economic effects. Goldman Sachs noted that AI spending supports investments in equipment and infrastructure, but its contribution to GDP growth remains limited. The bank estimates that in 2026, it will add about 0.3 percentage points to real economic growth and 0.1 percentage points to measurable growth.
Earlier, at the end of June, experts from the Bank for International Settlements shared similar observations. They saw risks to the financial system in the AI boom.
