The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a “neutral or slightly bullish” trend: leverage pressure has decreased, and short-term selling pressure is weakening. This was stated by CryptoQuant contributor CoinNiel.
According to the expert, the inflow dynamics to centralized exchanges indicate moderate but insufficient asset accumulation. Over the past week, the net inflow was approximately 2196 BTC, while over 14 days, the outflow remained around 8197 BTC.
“Mixed indicators point to a volatile liquidity adjustment phase rather than a clear trend,” CoinNiel clarified.
He added that long positions still have a slight advantage, but excessive leverage and over-optimism have weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing.
Based on the available data, the analyst predicted about a 55% chance of positive developments for the bitcoin market. To confirm the trend, it is necessary to monitor funding volume and exchange flows.
Other Observations
Analysts at Bitcoin Vector noted the market’s gradual absorption of aggressive selling typical of a bear phase.
Selling pressure is fading, but conviction has not returned yet.
The aggressive pressure that drove the bear market is gradually being absorbed.
However, holders are still realizing more losses than profits.
This is an early stabilization phase, not yet a confirmed recovery. pic.twitter.com/2tYREuIMqP
— Bitcoin Vector (@bitcoinvector) July 17, 2026
However, holders are still realizing more losses than profits. This situation may indicate an early stabilization phase.
A trader under the pseudonym gum compared the current market structure to the previous cycle.
He claims that the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 lasted for 161 days before sustained growth began, while in 2026, a similar period has lasted 147 days.
Bitcoin doing exactly the same as it did last cycle
Bullish divergence on the weekly & days till it started trending higher:
2022: 161 days
2026: 147 daysBoth times the divergence ended with a new low for BTC, which was the cycle bottom
I’ll say it again, there’s no point in… pic.twitter.com/AoekHytwA7
— gum (@gumsays) July 18, 2026
According to him, the correction should end with a new local minimum, which will be the cycle bottom. This level could be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
Earlier, from July 13 to 17, spot bitcoin-ETFs saw a net inflow of $75.5 million. The products recorded a second consecutive positive week.
