With no new strikes between the U.S. and Iran and oil prices falling, bitcoin moved back above $65,000. The asset rose 1.2% over the past 24 hours.
Ether rose 4.2% to $1,960. Solana and XRP gained 1-2%, according to CoinGecko.
U.S.-Iran pause sends oil prices lower
WTI oil futures opened the week down 7.2%. At the time of writing the price was $82.73 per barrel. Brent fell 7.1%, dropping to $85.13. Nasdaq contracts declined by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 index added 0.05%.
The war between the U.S. and Iran began in late February. In the second quarter, the sides agreed to a truce, but it did not last. According to the media, Washington “unexpectedly” ceased fire on the evening of July 24. Tehran also halted retaliatory attacks and said it would not resume them as long as the United States maintains the pause.
Trader Michaël van de Poppe expects oil prices to keep falling, which he said would support the crypto market. He called bitcoin holding $65,000 a “sign of strength.”
Iran has paused its strikes against the United States.
The United States hasn’t attacked Iran for a few days already.
In the middle of this all, Brent Oil has come down by 10% and the expectations are that this will continue to fall down over the next few days.
That would…
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 26, 2026
Technical analysis gives no clear signal
The trader known as CryptoFrog believes bitcoin remains in a macro downtrend. He sees $65,700 as a key level — a weekly close above this zone could confirm a trend reversal.
$BTC on the macro is still struggling to become bullish… 👀
As I’ve been talking about for weeks, the $65.7k level on the weekly chart is our prior BOS that we must see reclaimed via a weekly candle close before the macro charts objectively start to look bullish.
Since we… https://t.co/RN7KsGejC9 pic.twitter.com/0AWkBEB1H2
— CryptoFrog 🐸 (@CryptoFrogCalls) July 27, 2026
According to market participant Daan Crypto Trades, bulls now need to break the local June-July high around $67,000 — the next target would then be the daily moving average near $72,000-73,000. On a pullback, he pointed to support at the lower bound of the $60,000 range.
$BTC These levels are still all you need.
The level to break for the bulls is that local high from June/July at ~$67K. From there you can start targeting
the daily 200MA/EMA coming in around the $72K-$73K area.On the downside, the high timeframe support to hold is that $60K… pic.twitter.com/IXWQ2PMX3C
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 26, 2026
On-chain data do not confirm a reversal
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that since the start of the year bitcoin has been on a “weak trajectory.” He estimates combined spot and futures demand at -127,000 BTC — not enough to start a sustained trend.
📊 Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has been facing a fairly poor dynamic.
—> Either spot and futures demand is contracting, or speculation alone is temporarily reviving the market, with futures demand amplifying while spot demand continues to contract.
This extended trend… pic.twitter.com/tOEAbMyJjr
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 27, 2026
In his view, the market is oscillating between two states: either buyer interest is contracting in both segments, or speculators are driving the bounce — futures activity rises while spot continues to shrink. A similar pattern played out in the previous bear phase.
According to CryptoQuant, rallies began only when spot and futures moved in tandem. The firm reached a similar conclusion in the spring: the April rise from $66,000 to $79,000 was called speculative — spot demand then remained in negative territory.
Darkfost attributed the current stabilization in prices to seller exhaustion rather than a return of buyers. This is “an important first step,” but without panic selling amid very low volumes the correction could continue, the analyst warned.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson views the market through four-year cycles. He noted that from the halving to the bottom of the bear phase is roughly 900 days. It has been 826 so far, so the low is already being set and will form in the next couple of months, he said.
The time between each Bitcoin Halving and the bottom of the following Bear Market has been approximately 900 days.
The current cycle is already at day 827.
Based on this pattern, we can say that Bitcoin is already building its price bottom, with a potential final bottom forming… pic.twitter.com/VdFapE4PCV
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) July 26, 2026
In mid-July, Glassnode recorded a reversal in realized losses for bitcoin holders who bought coins in 2024-2025. In past cycles, this pattern repeatedly preceded the start of an uptrend.
