Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be the first to face the practical threat of quantum computing when the technology learns to crack complex encryption mechanisms. This was stated by Quantum Xchange CEO Eddie Zervigon in an interview with CoinDesk.
“Cryptocurrencies are the canary in the coal mine,” the entrepreneur added.
According to Zervigon, the attack is likely to start with blockchain protocols due to their decentralized nature.
Such an event would signal the emergence of a cryptographically significant quantum computer—one capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography that underpins Bitcoin’s signatures and banking infrastructure encryption.
Zervigon noted that companies investing billions in developing quantum systems—such as Microsoft and IBM—are generally aiming for the emergence of a commercially and cryptographically significant quantum system by around 2029.
This timeline is supported by recent hardware assessments. Google researchers have reduced the estimated quantum power needed to break Bitcoin. According to their calculations, less than 500,000 physical qubits would be required to attack elliptic curve cryptography—20 times fewer than previous estimates.
The U.S. government also provides an additional signal. The Department of Energy plans to create a powerful quantum computer within three years. Meanwhile, federal agencies have been mandated to transition to post-quantum cryptography.
“This starts the clock. It creates a sense of urgency,” Zervigon added.
Weak Spot
According to a report by Deutsche Digital Assets cited by CoinDesk, Bitcoin’s main vulnerability in the context of quantum computers is not the weakness of its algorithms but its slow decision-making system. Compared to traditional finance, implementing changes in blockchain takes a significant amount of time.
The company pointed out that an investment bank like JPMorgan does not need to obtain approval from millions of participants worldwide to update its cryptographic infrastructure. In most cases, a decision by the board of directors or major investors is sufficient.
A public decentralized blockchain will transition to post-quantum standards more slowly and unpredictably. Deutsche Digital Assets emphasized that this is not an argument against Bitcoin but an indication of a governance issue.
An academic paper from 2024, “Downtime Required for Bitcoin Quantum-Safety,” published on arXiv, supports this logic. The authors state that before any upgrade begins, 90% consensus among miners on specific upgrade parameters is necessary.
Historically significant changes in the network have met with strong resistance. A notable example is the SegWit upgrade in 2017: the community’s internal dispute was so deep that the ecosystem resulted in several versions through hard forks, including Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold.
Earlier, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson suggested that digital gold could lose its leadership due to the quantum threat.
