The leading cryptocurrency may be nearing the end of its bearish phase as on-chain metrics indicate early signs of a recovery in spot demand, according to CryptoQuant.
Spot Demand Nears Reversal
According to analysts, the 30-day visible spot demand indicator has recovered from -206,000 BTC on July 23 to approximately -5,000 BTC currently. The metric is close to turning positive for the first time since February 26, 2026.
Historically, such a reversal has been a strong indicator of subsequent growth: in previous instances, the asset showed a median increase of 18.1% over the next 60 days, with a 78% probability of continued upward movement. When valuations are significantly depressed, the probability rises to 87%.
“A change in demand is a tailwind, not a guarantee, and it must first be completed,” warned CryptoQuant specialists.
Is Bitcoin Nearing the End of the Bear Market?
Bitfinex Alpha analysts believe that two out of three conditions necessary for a full recovery of the leading cryptocurrency’s price have already been met:
- Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate have improved;
- Financial conditions remain relatively loose.
Inflation in the U.S. decreased from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July, and the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the coming weeks has diminished. Simultaneously, the decline in short-term Treasury yields and the rise in the stock market have increased investors’ appetite for risk assets.
However, the third factor is still missing—the flow of capital from traditional markets into cryptocurrencies.
According to Bitfinex, this could be the catalyst for the next growth phase. If funds currently invested in stocks, the tech sector, and AI infrastructure start moving into digital assets, Bitcoin could not only return above $70,000 but also enter a stronger upward trend.
Currently, the opposite is true: over the past week, U.S. spot BTC-ETFs lost about $385 million, and capital inflows into corporate Bitcoin treasuries have also slowed. The supply of stablecoins remains below the May peak. As a result, the market has become quite thin, so relatively small changes in flows can cause disproportionately strong movements in Bitcoin, both up and down.
In a positive scenario, Bitfinex suggests a return to prices above $70,000. If negative flows persist, the next important support zone could be around $57,000.
ETFs and Miners Hinder Range Breakout
Wintermute assessed the current situation more cautiously. The company’s specialists also pointed out the loss of approximately $385 million by U.S. spot BTC-ETFs, marking the largest weekly outflow since early July.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin barely reacted to the reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. For the market, this is a bad sign: typically, hopes for monetary policy easing stimulate demand for risk assets, yet Bitcoin remains under pressure.
Analysts believe that the combination of ETF outflows and miner sales has deprived the market of one of its main sources of new demand. As an example of pressure from miners, Wintermute cited Riot Platforms. The company sold 4,300 BTC in the second quarter after selling 3,778 BTC in the first. Its reserves have decreased to 11,380 BTC, and the cost of production has approached $91,000 per coin—significantly higher than the current price.
This means that some miners are forced to sell accumulated coins to maintain liquidity and finance operations. As long as the price remains significantly below their costs, supply-side pressure may persist, experts noted.
On August 17, Bitcoin outperformed the stock market—over the past three months, the asset has outpaced the S&P 500 on only one out of three trading days.
