Bitcoin may have already hit its bottom if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) halts further rate hikes and the economy remains stable, according to a Grayscale report.
Bitcoin is a macro asset and it trades with macro variables (eg growth and policy expectations)
If the Fed doesn’t hike $BTC may have already bottomed, even if the 4yr cycle framework implies longer bear market
Quick blog post: https://t.co/9tnWphYwJc pic.twitter.com/6928J1fCAa
— Zach Pandl (@LowBeta) July 22, 2026
Zach Pandl, head of research at the company, compared two market assessment approaches. According to the halving-related model, Bitcoin might continue to decline and reach its minimum in September or October 2026.
Grayscale’s calculations indicate that in previous cycles, the price of the leading cryptocurrency typically bottomed about a year after its peak and 2.5 years post-halving. The average decline depth was around 80%.
Pandl supported an alternative view: Bitcoin has matured as an asset and now reacts more to macroeconomic conditions, similar to other major asset classes. In this scenario, the market could turn around earlier than the historical cycle suggests.
“The key takeaway: the ‘four-year cycle’ concept predicts lower lows for Bitcoin’s price, but the macroeconomic perspective suggests the bottom may already be in,” the analyst wrote.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled for July 29. According to CME FedWatch, market participants estimate a 66% probability of the rate remaining unchanged, down from 88% a week earlier.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a separate risk. In a June 26 report, Pandl suggested that the failure to pass the CLARITY Act in 2026 could prompt Strategy and other companies with Bitcoin reserves to further reduce leverage, moderately increasing pressure on the price.
Previously, K33 analysts noted that more than 50% of Bitcoin’s supply is at a loss. Historically, such levels often preceded the formation of a bottom within weeks.
Conversely, miner Jiang Zhuoer expects a later bottom. According to his forecast, Bitcoin could bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026, within the $42,000–$44,000 range.
In June, Grayscale analysts described Strategy’s Bitcoin sales as a “stress test” of its financial model.
